History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme
The coming economic slowdown will likely affect the South and Northeast regions the least, while hitting the manufacturing and tech sectors the hardest.
Business and Economic Insights Archives
U.S. Perspectives
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How brands differentiate in times of uncertainty: building trust
By recognizing the risk consumers feel and taking measures to allay that risk, brands can embrace the opportunity to strengthen their customer relationships.
Consumer challenges continue to mount
Falling temperatures and rising interest rates contributed to weaker consumer activity in March.
Storm clouds brewing
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 remained strong, but clear signs of a possible slowdown in 2023 are starting to appear.
The Consumer in January: New year new me
After a bleak December, retail sales staged a surprising reversal.
Retail sales slumped in December
Retail sales fell in December—and it wasn’t just because of the winter weather.
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Five trends to watch for 2023
We expect five key themes to shape the U.S. economy, and your business, in 2023.
Inflation is on the Thanksgiving menu this year
Inflation is driving up the cost of just about everything—including ingredients for the traditional Thanksgiving meal.
Even in balmy weather, hiring can freeze
Meteorologists predict a mild La Niña winter in early 2023, but a chill might still permeate the economy.
U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook
U.S. holiday spending is expected to grow 6.7 percent year-over-year (YoY) on all forms of payment, according to Visa Business and Economic Insights.
Landing on a cloud
Since our last outlook, the future trajectory of the U.S. economy has become more uncertain; however, we think the most likely outcome is a soft landing.
Consumers’ confidence in present conditions further erodes in July
Consumers’ perceptions of present business conditions worsened, and cracks also formed in their view of the present job market.
Can’t fight this feeling of uncertainty
The short-term outlook is largely positive for all regions of the U.S., but the longer-term view has become far more uncertain.
Consumers keep spending despite concerns about the future
The outlook for spending in the second half of 2022 is generally positive, but the deterioration in consumer expectations suggests that soft spots are likely to emerge.
Are consumers sitting on a stockpile of cash?
Federal Reserve data indicates that household checkable deposits and currency have grown over 346 percent from the 2019 average to roughly $4.3T in Q1-2022.
June consumer confidence: crossing the Rubicon?
The Future Expectations component of the Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest point in over 10 years in June.
Consumer confidence down slightly in May
While inflation seems to be subsiding, consumers’ concerns about inflation—particularly the prospect of sustained high gas prices—remain front and center.
Will the affluent drive consumer spending growth again?
Historically, the affluent consumer had an outsized influence on aggregate consumer spending, but the pandemic adversely affected this key demographic disproportionally. With significant affluent pent-up demand, hard-hit categories of travel and restaurant spending should now benefit the most as affluent spending recovers.
The inflation inflection point?
The downshift in economic activity relative to last year may feel like the economy is slipping, but at this point there is little evidence to suggest a recession is in the cards.
Consumer Confidence Index stays virtually flat in April
Consumer confidence remained well below pre-pandemic levels, but further precipitous dips are unlikely.
Back to work
Parts of the country—particularly in the South and the West—are returning to pre-pandemic employment levels.
The Fed tightens the screws
Interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may mean higher rates across the yield curve and economic growth that bounces back to pre-pandemic 2.0-2.5 percent rates.
Consumer Confidence Index increases to 107.2 in March
Inflation concerns reach 50-year high in March, likely influencing discretionary spending throughout 2022.
The Fed’s tightrope walk begins
Elevated commodity prices such as grain and oil may soon feed into already elevated inflation rates here in the U.S. The persistence of inflation pressures will also likely begin to dampen real economic activity in our view.
Consumer confidence remains stuck in the moment
Consumers’ confidence in current conditions remains resilient, but is not generating momentum or translating into confidence in the future.
Demographic headwinds point to shifts in spending patterns
Gen X and millennial consumers will rotate into key positions as primary consumers while baby boomers rotate out. Potentially slower rate of GDP growth.
Consumers may see a brighter 2022 on the horizon
Consumers seem to be headed into 2022 with a positive outlook for the coming year.
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Consumers’ inflation concerns increase, confidence decreases
Current impressions of labor market and business conditions show a disconnect.
The digital imperative for U.S. small businesses
Digital solutions can help small businesses overcome labor shortages and other macroeconomic challenges as consumer appetite for online shopping grows.
Glad tidings for the holiday season?
This holiday shopping season is expected to be above average, but there are risks.
A faster, but uneven employment recovery
Declining case counts and pent-up demand for services should lead to more robust consumer spending in Q4 across all regions.
Softer Q3 economic data clouds the outlook
Consumer spending downshifts as the Delta variant surges and higher consumer prices erode consumers’ purchasing power.
Consumer confidence numbers drop
Delta variant and ongoing inflation concerns fuel a drop in consumer confidence.
The Delta downshift has emerged
As the COVID-19 case counts continue to rise in the U.S., the economic impact of the latest virus wave is coming into focus.
America’s small business spending surges in Q2 to meet consumer demand
Visa’s proprietary indexes and a nationwide survey provide new indication of the state of America’s small businesses.
Full steam ahead for the South and the West
U.S. GDP growth reached full recovery in the second quarter of this year, but some parts of the country are contributing to the rebound more than others.
Demand for travel related consumer spending is back
The turnaround in domestic travel spending has been impressive but a full recovery likely lies with the ability of travelers to access international markets.
Deurbanization or the great reshuffle?
Higher-cost metro areas could suffer for a while as lower-cost areas present new opportunities for merchants and issuers.
When will the Fed remove its punchbowl of accommodation that has helped to fuel the strong recovery?
Economic growth is robust, the labor market is firming and inflation pressures are buildling.
America’s small businesses are starting to borrow again
Visa’s proprietary indexes and a nationwide survey provide new indication of the state of America’s small businesses.
America in recovery: Why some regions are faring better than others
States with lower restrictions and higher employment in essential industries have had the lowest GDP and employment declines caused by the pandemic.
Assessing the economic recovery one year later
Is the U.S. economy on course for one of the strongest years in history?
Consumer spending stalls in April as stimulus effects wane
Retail sales excluding autos fell 0.8 percent month-over-month (MoM) in April after consumers exhausted stimulus payments from the prior month.
Supply shortages create pothole on the road to economic recovery
Regular readers will note that we have been pointing out the risk of higher inflation for several months now.
Consumers grow more confident, but still have concerns about the future
Economic concerns could hinder consumer spending through the remainder of 2021.
Economic recovery: Full steam ahead
First quarter ends with solid economic growth and strong momentum going into Q2.
Vaccination effort gives ‘shot in the arm’ to consumer confidence—highest since pandemic
Consumers really want to travel, but are concerned about safety and prices.
Inflation: The price of recovery?
Q1 real GDP growth was revised downward and new risks to the outlook are emerging.
Younger consumers are more confident in the economic recovery
Consumers are living in the moment as the Present Situation Index drives confidence again.
U.S. economy signals strong start to 2021
For the first time in a while, we now see more upside risk to GDP growth this year than downside.
U.S. consumer recovery is losing some momentum
Holiday sales were strong, but consumers have slowed spending due to expired federal stimulus programs and continued surges in COVID cases.
Consumer confidence likely to remain low until vaccines are widely available
Spending and economic recovery depend on affluent consumers.
U.S. consumer recovery is losing some momentum
Holiday sales were strong, but consumers have slowed spending due to expired federal stimulus programs and continued surges in COVID cases.
U.S. economy loses momentum
We continue to forecast stronger growth in the second half of this year as a vaccine becomes more widely available and consumer confidence begins to more meaningfully recover.
Consumers show optimism about the future, but remain bogged down by the present
Many don’t think the stimulus is enough or that the vaccine will be effective.
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Beginning the recovery journey: 5 things to watch for
We take a step back and focus on the key themes that will determine economic growth in the year ahead.
America's small businesses are starting to recover
Despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, small business spending has rebounded significantly.
U.S. consumer activity decelerated in October
October retail sales data pointed to a downshift in the pace of consumer spending.
Post-election prognostication
We have revised our outlook a bit higher for Q4 but lowered our expectations for growth entering 2021.
October consumer confidence decreased slightly
Holiday spending mood is good, but how and what consumers are buying is shifting this year.
U.S. small business activity improved slightly in September
Opens stall, while revenues and employment improve slightly.
U.S. consumer activity accelerated in September
Retail sales jump to near pre-pandemic levels in September.
Holiday partying like it’s 1999?
Among the key drivers of this year’s robust holiday sales are the recent surge in e-commerce sales, the continued robust demand for food and beverages at home (groceries), and higher prices on holiday-related items.
U.S. economic recovery is losing some momentum
In response to the slower pace of improvement in the economic data, we have downwardly revised our estimate for fourth quarter gross domestic product growth.
September consumer confidence increased more than 15 points
Consumers reluctant to celebrate and spend for Halloween; foreshadowing the holiday season?
U.S. consumer activity further moderated in August
Overall consumer spending remains well below its pre-recession peak, and the labor market continues its slow recovery.
Economic growth: Bouncing back…and a return to boring?
Solid economic data in August point toward a historic bounce in third quarter gross domestic product growth as the reopening process continues.
Consumer confidence falls to a six-year low
Fall in confidence likely a combination of increased COVID cases in parts of the U.S. and the end of some government stimulus programs. Millennials are becoming less comfortable going out to eat.
Small Business Recovery Monitor
Visa's analysis of current economic data indicates that U.S. small business activity stalled in July.
U.S. small businesses still struggle from pandemic
Visa's proprietary Small Business Health Indexes and a nationwide survey of small business owners show how America's small businesses are coping during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retail sales improvement moderates in July
Visa's analysis of current economic data indicates that U.S. consumer activity continued to recover in July but at a more moderate pace.
A speedbump on the economic road to recovery
The U.S. economy decelerated in July with a surge in COVID-19 cases across wide swaths of the country.
Is the economic recovery at risk?
Economic data for the month of June continued to signal a rebound in economic activity even as the number of new virus cases continued to rise to new highs.
Consumer confidence is slowly rebounding
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rebounded strongly in June, after virtually no change in May. The headline index was up 12.2 points to 98.1 (1985=100), from 85.9 in May.
Small businesses started slowly recovering in June
SBA-led federal aid programs and the lifting of stay-at-home restrictions are beginning to alleviate much of the burden small businesses have carried since March.
Consumer deferrals may influence the debt payment hierarchy
As COVID-19 takes the U.S. economy into uncharted territory, many credit card issuers and other lenders are wondering how consumers’ debt behavior might change.
Small businesses hit hard in Q1 by the pandemic
Visa's Spring Small Business Outlook indicates that small business spending declined sharply in Q1 as the health crisis unfolded and sales plummeted.
Early signs of softer U.S. consumer spending
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.
U.S. consumer spending downshifted slightly in January
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.
U.S. economic momentum is solid, but uncertainty is building
Economic data for January pointed towards a solid start to 2020. Uncertainty is building, however, with the ongoing fallout of the coronavirus.
U.S. consumer spending ended 2019 with good momentum
Solid holiday spending combined with continued job gains and modest income growth marked the end of 2019.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times
For most of the U.S. economy, times are good. However, the manufacturing sector continues to struggle.
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Consumers are continuing to propel the U.S. economy forward
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.
Steady growth, but U.S. small businesses show signs of caution
More than half expect their business to have positive cash flow in 2020, but many small businesses also worry about the potential negative impact that global and political instability could have on their business, according to Visa's latest survey.
U.S. economic growth has become bifurcated
Risks to the U.S. economic outlook include a possible federal government shutdown and yet-to-be-resolved trade issues.
U.S. consumers continue to power economic growth
The resilience of the U.S. consumer helped to support GDP growth even as business investment contracted for the second consecutive quarter.
Making the yield curve steep again
There are signs that economic growth should stabilize in the fourth quarter after decelerating earlier this year.
U.S. consumer economic conditions remain strong, but declining confidence may be cause for concern
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.
Holiday sales expected to rise 4.1 percent year-over-year
Thanksgiving weekend is lining up to be one of the strongest in years, with 60 percent of holiday shoppers indicating they plan to shop on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday or Cyber Monday. This is a big jump from 51 percent back in 2013.
U.S. economic growth is softening as the global economy slows
Slowdown in manufacturing is beginning to permeate the services sector. Plus Visa’s U.S. economic forecast through 2021.
Fundamentals behind U.S. consumer spending remain solid so far in the third quarter
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.
U.S. small businesses continue to expand and grow despite trade uncertainty
As tariffs continue, one in five businesses worry their business will suffer in the years ahead, according to Visa's latest survey.
A tale of two economies: manufacturing vs. services
U.S. economic growth is expected to downshift but remain positive heading into 2020, while weakness in manufacturing could hold back business fixed investment.
Fundamentals behind U.S consumer spending remain strong
Retail sales jump to 3.7 percent year-over-year in July, signaling a solid start to the third quarter.
A rate cut, now what?
The outlook for the second half of 2019 has changed very little in Visa’s updated U.S. economic forecast.
U.S. consumer sector economic data remains strong
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.
U.S. Economy: Lower rates on the horizon
The FOMC will likely cut rates twice this year, trying to nudge inflation closer to its 2 percent target and offset the slowdown in U.S. manufacturing.
Retail sales are stronger than they look
Visa’s analysis of the most recent consumer sector economic data indicates consumer spending should accelerate in the second quarter.
U.S. Economy: Continued trade uncertainty weighs on economic growth
Economic data continues to indicate a downshift in the pace of economic growth in the second quarter.
U.S. small business economic outlook remains steady
“Business as usual” climate continues with America’s small businesses, according to latest Visa survey.
Consumer spending off to a disappointing start in Q2
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from Chief Economist Wayne Best and U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown.
U.S. Economic Outlook: Finding the signal through the noise
U.S. headline economic growth appeared surprisingly strong in the first quarter, but was inflated by higher inventories and a contraction in import activity.
U.S. Economic Outlook: A weak start, but growth to rebound in 2019
April 18, 2019
Looking ahead to Q2, Visa’s April U.S. economic forecast continues to show that growth will likely pick up.
Consumer spending shows signs of strengthening
Visa’s monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from Chief Economist Wayne Best and U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown.
How much longer can the current U.S. economic expansion continue?
The ongoing U.S. economic expansion is approaching record-breaking status, but for how long? Visa’s Principal U.S. Economist, Michael Brown, discusses the economic indicators he monitors for signs of a recession.
Small business economic indicators still relatively strong
Women are more likely than men to need funding to grow their small businesses, according to Visa survey.
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Gen X leads the holiday spending forecast
Thanksgiving weekend is lining up to be one of the strongest in years for U.S. retailers.
Consumer spending shifting to improve quality of life
A video insight from Visa's Chief Economist, Wayne Best.
Consumer wealth has major implications for U.S. economy
Stock and home values have increased household wealth and supercharged consumer spending.
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Holiday spending expected to grow 3.5-4 percent YoY
U.S. e-commerce spending is likely to increase 15-17 percent this holiday season.
Building, hardware and garden store sales are booming
Hardware and garden store sales increased by 12.8 percent as consumers remodel their homes.
Clothing store sales growth declines
Clothing store sales growth declines overall, but jewelry sales are going strong.
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Affluent consumer spending is under pressure
Affluent U.S. consumers have pulled back on spending in recent years, lagging as much as five percentage points behind non-affluent spending growth.
Chief Economist Newsletter
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Global economic outlook: Calm before the storm?
Slowing growth, but a recession is not necessarily inevitable.
Despite risks, stability is returning to global economic growth
Brexit, declining global home prices and trade tensions are the biggest issues that threaten the global outlook.
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Strong growth for the U.S. economy, but will it last?
Potential trade war adds uncertainty to the outlook.
Troubled waters ahead for the U.S. economy?
By most measures, the U.S. economy is on solid footing, but fiscal stimulus—in the form of tax cuts—could overheat the economy.
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Slow economic growth expected for coming years
The U.S. economy is expanding, but a variety of factors could hinder growth.
Strong U.S. economy spurs spending in key merchant categories
The U.S. economy has been expanding for nearly eight years and appears on track to surpass the 10-year record set in the 1990s.
Global economy adjusts to 'slow-fast world'
Nearly half of the world's countries will see a steady decline in working-age populations.
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Economic growth bolsters housing
Until recently, housing was the missing link in the economic recovery.
U.S. economy outlook steady despite weaker global trends
The global economy is in the longest stretch of sub-par growth of the last three decades.
Travel Insights
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Global travel nears full recovery
Global travelers have moved on from the pandemic. With each passing month of this year, the world has gotten closer to a full recovery, setting the stage for international visitor arrivals in 2023 to reach 90-95% of their 2019 levels.
Global travel out of the doldrums, but how far can it go?
Global travel’s path to recovery is less about restoring the mix of destinations and more about the strength and openness of source markets.
The U.S. economy’s pent-up demand for travel: The summer vacation is back
Based on recent trends, total consumer expenditures on domestic travel could reach a full recovery by mid-summer and enter an expansionary phase soon after.
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Global travel prospects: Taking stock two years into the pandemic
Fifty-five million households traveled internationally in the first nine months of 2021.
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Relaxing entry visa requirements helps many countries boost tourism growth
Following a decade of visa liberalization in Africa, tourist arrivals grew 8 percent year-over-year (YoY) in 2019.
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Are the world’s top travel destinations at risk of overtourism?
While the number of people traveling abroad is increasing rapidly, where these globe trekkers are going is not.
The world’s most visited cities in 2018
Ranking the world’s top destinations for international arrivals in each region.
Visa estimates impact of Olympic Winter Games
South Korea could see a tourism lift of 5-10 percent from the winter games in PyeongChang.
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Closer destinations preferred for beach travel
2017 hurricanes still displacing some N. American Caribbean travel.
Cross-border tourism in Asia is taking off
Cross-border tourism from Asia Pacific is booming—outpacing income growth in the region.
Visa explores growth opportunities for global ski tourism
The importance of foreign ski travel to the tourism industry overall varies widely by country.
Ski destinations have room for further market development
Seasonal variations in international visits provide insights into the potential for attracting foreign tourists to ski destinations.
The slippery slope of population aging in ski tourism
Ski destinations are more exposed to aging trends in part due to the preponderance of European travelers in the cross-border ski market.
Top 25 winter ski destinations for international travelers
Austria’s Pinzgau-Pongau region of the Alps is ranked #1 in Visa’s list of the top 25 global winter ski destinations,* based on a three-year average of cross-border arrivals according to the Visa International Travel (VISIT) platform.
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Impact of Asia Pacific travelers visiting U.S. national parks
Asian travelers are the fastest-growing segment of park visitors.
Importance of U.S. national parks to tourism industry
At least one in eight foreign tourists visit the U.S. national parks in the summer—a nearly $10 billion economic boost.
Western U.S. national parks popular with foreign tourists
Find out the top 10 U.S. national parks ranked by foreign tourist visits.
Top-trending summer travel destinations in Japan
Find out which cities topped the list of cities visited by foreign tourists visiting Japan last year.
Currency movements influence Asia Pacific travel
The currency devaluation after Brexit had a subdued impact on AP travel to the U.K.
Top-trending summer travel destinations for North Americans
Find out which global travel destinations are popular with summer travelers.
Travel to U.K. saves Americans nearly $150/trip post-Brexit
The weaker British pound made the U.K. a more affordable travel destination following Brexit.
Travel wanderlust: Age is not a constraint, but income might be
New research from Visa Business + Economic Insights indicates seniors will have a growing impact on travel and tourism.
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Brexit: Long-term impact on travel is unknown
Brexit could impact international travel and cause a reduction in British travel to the rest of the world: U.K. travelers currently account for nearly 8 percent of all international departures.
The future of global travel
Over the next 10 years, the growth in travel spending is expected to outpace the global economy.
Global Perspectives
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Population aging complicates efforts to curb inflation
In early 2023, inflation appeared to be turning the corner globally. However, efforts to curb inflation have faced a countervailing force that is becoming increasingly relevant post-pandemic: population aging.
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2023 Annual Global Economic Outlook
Two very pressing questions for 2023: will inflation finally be brought under control and will the short-term cost of this effort be worth the pain? Our regional economists weigh in on the key factors influencing our global outlook.Gen Z and the metaverse: Influencing the future of the economy
Gen Z is gaining increasing prominence globally as the cohort enters the workforce, earns income and becomes the new consumers and influencers of tomorrow.
E-commerce behavior points to structural shift in online shopping
Further expansion into the digital space is still possible.
Another solid year of global economic growth
The year ahead promises to be one of the strongest for many more countries. How strong will depend heavily on bringing the pandemic under greater control.
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Innovation powers the global recovery
Pandemic-era technological and digital adoption helped accelerate entrepreneurship—and the economic recovery.
China’s contribution to the global recovery could be its lowest in modern economic history
Current production is laying the foundations for China’s next phase of growth.
Will the abrupt, pandemic-induced e-commerce shift reshape retail’s future?
Retail merchants of all sizes across all regions of the world adapted to the pandemic by moving more of their sales online.
The last billion connections: Africa’s e-commerce potential
Africa was already on a trajectory of rapid digital transformation, but the pandemic has likely accelerated the trend.
After Brexit: New realities for European travel
Brexit brings new rules and restrictions on cross-border travel.
Three potential surprises in 2021
Looking back, most economists were overly pessimistic. Close reading of high-frequency transaction data has revealed greater resilience in the global economy.
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2020 holiday sales start strong globally
After earlier pandemic-related losses, businesses face greater financial pressure for a strong year-end.
Tourism’s road to recovery runs through cities
Bringing large cities back is critical to the recovery of global travel and tourism.
Customer loyalty enables businesses to recover faster
The benefits of having a more loyal customer base have become readily apparent, especially in the food service industry and quick services restaurants.
August Global Economic Insights
Similar to retirement behavior, COVID-19 reduces the share of household spending on apparel and restaurants.
Why the world needs to watch Asia Pacific
Visa’s Principal Asia Pacific Economist reflects on the shape of the region’s economic recovery from the pandemic – and what lessons it holds for the rest of the world.
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European middle class households expected to increase spending 38 percent
In western Europe, 55 percent of all new consumer spending is expected to come from “new affluent” households by 2030. Visa's European principal economist Adolfo Laurenti discusses this trend.
What happens when cities close their "globalization gap" over the next decade?
Hundreds of millions more global consumers will enter the middle class and gain purchasing power extending beyond their basic needs. Who and where are they? Visa's chief economist discusses this trend and what it could mean for global merchants.
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A year after demonetization, digital payments grow in India
The Indian economy has transformed considerably toward cashless payments.
Digital payments are expanding in India
India continues to make steady progress toward becoming a “less cash society".
After demonetization: India's move to a "less-cash" society
India is on the path to becoming a digital payments economy.
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Income is driving Southeast Asian spending
Despite declines in the housing market, spending is unlikely to suffer as a result.