Economic recovery: Full steam ahead
April 16, 2021
First quarter ends with solid economic growth and strong momentum going into Q2.Business and Economic Insights
Visa’s team of economists provide business and economic insights with up-to-date analysis on the latest trends in consumer spending and payments. Sign up today to receive their regular updates automatically via email.
Vaccination effort gives ‘shot in the arm’ to consumer confidence—highest since pandemic
April 12, 2021
Consumers really want to travel, but are concerned about safety and prices.
Inflation: The price of recovery?
March 12, 2021
Q1 real GDP growth was revised downward and new risks to the outlook are emerging.
Younger consumers are more confident in the economic recovery
March 11, 2021
Consumers are living in the moment as the Present Situation Index drives confidence again.
U.S. economy signals strong start to 2021
February 15, 2021
For the first time in a while, we now see more upside risk to GDP growth this year than downside.
Consumer confidence likely to remain low until vaccines are widely available
February 5, 2021
Spending and economic recovery depend on affluent consumers.
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U.S. Perspectives Archive
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U.S. consumer recovery is losing some momentum
January 27, 2021
Holiday sales were strong, but consumers have slowed spending due to expired federal stimulus programs and continued surges in COVID cases.
U.S. economy loses momentum
January 20, 2021
We continue to forecast stronger growth in the second half of this year as a vaccine becomes more widely available and consumer confidence begins to more meaningfully recover.
Consumers show optimism about the future, but remain bogged down by the present
January 12, 2021
Many don’t think the stimulus is enough or that the vaccine will be effective.
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Beginning the recovery journey: 5 things to watch for
December 15, 2020
We take a step back and focus on the key themes that will determine economic growth in the year ahead.
America's small businesses are starting to recover
December 7, 2020
Despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, small business spending has rebounded significantly.
U.S. consumer activity decelerated in October
December 4, 2020
October retail sales data pointed to a downshift in the pace of consumer spending.
Post-election prognostication
November 20, 2020
We have revised our outlook a bit higher for Q4 but lowered our expectations for growth entering 2021.
October consumer confidence decreased slightly
November 16, 2020
Holiday spending mood is good, but how and what consumers are buying is shifting this year.
U.S. small business activity improved slightly in September
November 10, 2020
Opens stall, while revenues and employment improve slightly.
U.S. consumer activity accelerated in September
November 10, 2020
Retail sales jump to near pre-pandemic levels in September.
Holiday partying like it’s 1999?
November 4, 2020
Among the key drivers of this year’s robust holiday sales are the recent surge in e-commerce sales, the continued robust demand for food and beverages at home (groceries), and higher prices on holiday-related items.
U.S. economic recovery is losing some momentum
October 13, 2020
In response to the slower pace of improvement in the economic data, we have downwardly revised our estimate for fourth quarter gross domestic product growth.
September consumer confidence increased more than 15 points
October 5, 2020
Consumers reluctant to celebrate and spend for Halloween; foreshadowing the holiday season?
U.S. consumer activity further moderated in August
September 24, 2020
Overall consumer spending remains well below its pre-recession peak, and the labor market continues its slow recovery.
Economic growth: Bouncing back…and a return to boring?
September 21, 2020
Solid economic data in August point toward a historic bounce in third quarter gross domestic product growth as the reopening process continues.
Consumer confidence falls to a six-year low
September 15, 2020
Fall in confidence likely a combination of increased COVID cases in parts of the U.S. and the end of some government stimulus programs. Millennials are becoming less comfortable going out to eat.
Small Business Recovery Monitor
September 8, 2020
Visa's analysis of current economic data indicates that U.S. small business activity stalled in July.
U.S. small businesses still struggle from pandemic
September 2, 2020
Visa's proprietary Small Business Health Indexes and a nationwide survey of small business owners show how America's small businesses are coping during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Retail sales improvement moderates in July
August 28, 2020
Visa's analysis of current economic data indicates that U.S. consumer activity continued to recover in July but at a more moderate pace.
A speedbump on the economic road to recovery
August 17, 2020
The U.S. economy decelerated in July with a surge in COVID-19 cases across wide swaths of the country.
Is the economic recovery at risk?
July 9, 2020
Economic data for the month of June continued to signal a rebound in economic activity even as the number of new virus cases continued to rise to new highs.
Consumer confidence is slowly rebounding
July 9, 2020
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rebounded strongly in June, after virtually no change in May. The headline index was up 12.2 points to 98.1 (1985=100), from 85.9 in May.
Small businesses started slowly recovering in June
July 6, 2020
SBA-led federal aid programs and the lifting of stay-at-home restrictions are beginning to alleviate much of the burden small businesses have carried since March.
Consumer deferrals may influence the debt payment hierarchy
June 25, 2020
As COVID-19 takes the U.S. economy into uncharted territory, many credit card issuers and other lenders are wondering how consumers’ debt behavior might change.
Small businesses hit hard in Q1 by the pandemic
Visa's Spring Small Business Outlook indicates that small business spending declined sharply in Q1 as the health crisis unfolded and sales plummeted.
Early signs of softer U.S. consumer spending
April 2, 2020
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.
U.S. consumer spending downshifted slightly in January
February 24, 2020
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.
U.S. economic momentum is solid, but uncertainty is building
February 19, 2020
Economic data for January pointed towards a solid start to 2020. Uncertainty is building, however, with the ongoing fallout of the coronavirus.
U.S. consumer spending ended 2019 with good momentum
January 27, 2020
Solid holiday spending combined with continued job gains and modest income growth marked the end of 2019.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times
January 21, 2020
For most of the U.S. economy, times are good. However, the manufacturing sector continues to struggle.
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Consumers are continuing to propel the U.S. economy forward
December 24, 2019
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.
Steady growth, but U.S. small businesses show signs of caution
December 18, 2019
More than half expect their business to have positive cash flow in 2020, but many small businesses also worry about the potential negative impact that global and political instability could have on their business, according to Visa's latest survey.
U.S. economic growth has become bifurcated
December 17, 2019
Risks to the U.S. economic outlook include a possible federal government shutdown and yet-to-be-resolved trade issues.
U.S. consumers continue to power economic growth
November 22, 2019
The resilience of the U.S. consumer helped to support GDP growth even as business investment contracted for the second consecutive quarter.
Making the yield curve steep again
November 13, 2019
There are signs that economic growth should stabilize in the fourth quarter after decelerating earlier this year.
U.S. consumer economic conditions remain strong, but declining confidence may be cause for concern
October 31, 2019
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.
Holiday sales expected to rise 4.1 percent year-over-year
November 12, 2019
Thanksgiving weekend is lining up to be one of the strongest in years, with 60 percent of holiday shoppers indicating they plan to shop on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday or Cyber Monday. This is a big jump from 51 percent back in 2013.
U.S. economic growth is softening as the global economy slows
October 15, 2019
Slowdown in manufacturing is beginning to permeate the services sector. Plus Visa’s U.S. economic forecast through 2021.
Fundamentals behind U.S. consumer spending remain solid so far in the third quarter
September 25, 2019
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.
U.S. small businesses continue to expand and grow despite trade uncertainty
September 16, 2019
As tariffs continue, one in five businesses worry their business will suffer in the years ahead, according to Visa's latest survey.
A tale of two economies: manufacturing vs. services
September 11, 2019
U.S. economic growth is expected to downshift but remain positive heading into 2020, while weakness in manufacturing could hold back business fixed investment.
Fundamentals behind U.S consumer spending remain strong
August 22, 2019
Retail sales jump to 3.7 percent year-over-year in July, signaling a solid start to the third quarter.
A rate cut, now what?
August 8, 2019
The outlook for the second half of 2019 has changed very little in Visa’s updated U.S. economic forecast.
U.S. consumer sector economic data remains strong
July 19, 2019
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.
U.S. Economy: Lower rates on the horizon
July 10, 2019
The FOMC will likely cut rates twice this year, trying to nudge inflation closer to its 2 percent target and offset the slowdown in U.S. manufacturing.
Retail sales are stronger than they look
June 25, 2019
Visa’s analysis of the most recent consumer sector economic data indicates consumer spending should accelerate in the second quarter.
U.S. Economy: Continued trade uncertainty weighs on economic growth
June 17, 2019
Economic data continues to indicate a downshift in the pace of economic growth in the second quarter.
U.S. small business economic outlook remains steady
May 17, 2019
“Business as usual” climate continues with America’s small businesses, according to latest Visa survey.
Consumer spending off to a disappointing start in Q2
May 21, 2019
Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from Chief Economist Wayne Best and U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown.
U.S. Economic Outlook: Finding the signal through the noise
May 8, 2019
U.S. headline economic growth appeared surprisingly strong in the first quarter, but was inflated by higher inventories and a contraction in import activity.
U.S. Economic Outlook: A weak start, but growth to rebound in 2019
April 18, 2019
Looking ahead to Q2, Visa’s April U.S. economic forecast continues to show that growth will likely pick up.
Consumer spending shows signs of strengthening
April 18, 2019
Visa’s monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from Chief Economist Wayne Best and U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown.
How much longer can the current U.S. economic expansion continue?
April 3, 2019
The ongoing U.S. economic expansion is approaching record-breaking status, but for how long? Visa’s Principal U.S. Economist, Michael Brown, discusses the economic indicators he monitors for signs of a recession.
Small business economic indicators still relatively strong
February 20, 2019
Women are more likely than men to need funding to grow their small businesses, according to Visa survey.
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Gen X leads the holiday spending forecast
November 20, 2018
Thanksgiving weekend is lining up to be one of the strongest in years for U.S. retailers.
Consumer spending shifting to improve quality of life
June 13, 2018
A video insight from Visa's Chief Economist, Wayne Best.
Consumer wealth has major implications for U.S. economy
March 20, 2018
Stock and home values have increased household wealth and supercharged consumer spending.
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Holiday spending expected to grow 3.5-4 percent YoY
November 21, 2017
U.S. e-commerce spending is likely to increase 15-17 percent this holiday season.
Building, hardware and garden store sales are booming
October 11, 2017
Hardware and garden store sales increased by 12.8 percent as consumers remodel their homes.
Clothing store sales growth declines
September 5, 2017
Clothing store sales growth declines overall, but jewelry sales are going strong.
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Affluent consumer spending is under pressure
October 13, 2016
Affluent U.S. consumers have pulled back on spending in recent years, lagging as much as five percentage points behind non-affluent spending growth.
Global economic outlook: Calm before the storm?
December 18, 2019
Slowing growth, but a recession is not necessarily inevitable.
Despite risks, stability is returning to global economic growth
May 10, 2019
Brexit, declining global home prices and trade tensions are the biggest issues that threaten the global outlook.
Strong growth for the U.S. economy, but will it last?
November 30, 2018
Potential trade war adds uncertainty to the outlook.
Chief Economist Newsletter Archive
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Troubled waters ahead for the U.S. economy?
June 20, 2018
By most measures, the U.S. economy is on solid footing, but fiscal stimulus—in the form of tax cuts—could overheat the economy.
Global economy growth expected to continue in 2018
January 22, 2018
In 2017, the global economy saw the most broad-based growth since the global financial crisis. What's ahead in 2018?
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Slow economic growth expected for coming years
October 27, 2017
The U.S. economy is expanding, but a variety of factors could hinder growth.
Strong U.S. economy spurs spending in key merchant categories
May 25, 2017
The U.S. economy has been expanding for nearly eight years and appears on track to surpass the 10-year record set in the 1990s.
Global economy adjusts to 'slow-fast world'
January 9, 2017
Nearly half of the world's countries will see a steady decline in working-age populations.
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U.S. consumer spending reveals economic growth
October 21, 2016
Weak GDP figures mask the strength of the consumer.
Economic growth bolsters housing
June 30, 2016
Until recently, housing was the missing link in the economic recovery.
U.S. economy outlook steady despite weaker global trends
April 1, 2016
The global economy is in the longest stretch of sub-par growth of the last three decades.
Relaxing entry visa requirements helps many countries boost tourism growth
February 4, 2020
Following a decade of visa liberalization in Africa, tourist arrivals grew 8 percent year-over-year (YoY) in 2019.
Are the world’s top travel destinations at risk of overtourism?
September 5, 2019
While the number of people traveling abroad is increasing rapidly, where these globe trekkers are going is not.
The world’s most visited cities in 2018
April 12, 2019
Ranking the world’s top destinations for international arrivals in each region.
Travel Insights Archive
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The world’s most visited cities in 2018
April 12, 2019
Ranking the world’s top destinations for international arrivals in each region.
Visa estimates impact of Olympic Winter Games
January 4, 2019
South Korea could see a tourism lift of 5-10 percent from the winter games in PyeongChang.
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Closer destinations preferred for beach travel
December 20, 2018
2017 hurricanes still displacing some N. American Caribbean travel.
Cross-border tourism in Asia is taking off
June 6, 2018
Cross-border tourism from Asia Pacific is booming—outpacing income growth in the region.
Visa explores growth opportunities for global ski tourism
February 6, 2018
The importance of foreign ski travel to the tourism industry overall varies widely by country.
Ski destinations have room for further market development
February 6, 2018
Seasonal variations in international visits provide insights into the potential for attracting foreign tourists to ski destinations.
The slippery slope of population aging in ski tourism
February 6, 2018
Ski destinations are more exposed to aging trends in part due to the preponderance of European travelers in the cross-border ski market.
Top 25 winter ski destinations for international travelers
February 6, 2018
Austria’s Pinzgau-Pongau region of the Alps is ranked #1 in Visa’s list of the top 25 global winter ski destinations,* based on a three-year average of cross-border arrivals according to the Visa International Travel (VISIT) platform.
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Impact of Asia Pacific travelers visiting U.S. national parks
July 24, 2017
Asian travelers are the fastest-growing segment of park visitors.
Importance of U.S. national parks to tourism industry
July 24, 2017
At least one in eight foreign tourists visit the U.S. national parks in the summer—a nearly $10 billion economic boost.
Western U.S. national parks popular with foreign tourists
July 24, 2017
Find out the top 10 U.S. national parks ranked by foreign tourist visits.
Top-trending summer travel destinations in Japan
June 19, 2017
Find out which cities topped the list of cities visited by foreign tourists visiting Japan last year.
Currency movements influence Asia Pacific travel
May 31, 2017
The currency devaluation after Brexit had a subdued impact on AP travel to the U.K.
Top-trending summer travel destinations for North Americans
May 12, 2017
Find out which global travel destinations are popular with summer travelers.
Travel to U.K. saves Americans nearly $150/trip post-Brexit
April 18, 2017
The weaker British pound made the U.K. a more affordable travel destination following Brexit.
Travel wanderlust: Age is not a constraint, but income might be
February 22, 2017
New research from Visa Business + Economic Insights indicates seniors will have a growing impact on travel and tourism.
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Brexit: Long-term impact on travel is unknown
August 18, 2016
Brexit could impact international travel and cause a reduction in British travel to the rest of the world: U.K. travelers currently account for nearly 8 percent of all international departures.
The future of global travel
June 9, 2016
Over the next 10 years, the growth in travel spending is expected to outpace the global economy.
Will the abrupt, pandemic-induced e-commerce shift reshape retail’s future?
Retail merchants of all sizes across all regions of the world adapted to the pandemic by moving more of their sales online.
The last billion connections: Africa’s e-commerce potential
Africa was already on a trajectory of rapid digital transformation, but the pandemic has likely accelerated the trend.
After Brexit: New realities for European travel
Brexit brings new rules and restrictions on cross-border travel.
Global Perspectives Archive
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Three potential surprises in 2021
January 12, 2021
Looking back, most economists were overly pessimistic. Close reading of high-frequency transaction data has revealed greater resilience in the global economy.
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2020 holiday sales start strong globally
December 1, 2020
After earlier pandemic-related losses, businesses face greater financial pressure for a strong year-end.
Tourism’s road to recovery runs through cities
November 5, 2020
Bringing large cities back is critical to the recovery of global travel and tourism.
Customer loyalty enables businesses to recover faster
September 29, 2020
The benefits of having a more loyal customer base have become readily apparent, especially in the food service industry and quick services restaurants.
August Global Economic Insights
September 4, 2020
Similar to retirement behavior, COVID-19 reduces the share of household spending on apparel and restaurants.
Why the world needs to watch Asia Pacific
July 14, 2020
Visa’s Principal Asia Pacific Economist reflects on the shape of the region’s economic recovery from the pandemic – and what lessons it holds for the rest of the world.
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European middle class households expected to increase spending 38 percent
September 27, 2019
In western Europe, 55 percent of all new consumer spending is expected to come from “new affluent” households by 2030. Visa's European principal economist Adolfo Laurenti discusses this trend.
What happens when cities close their "globalization gap" over the next decade?
April 3, 2019
Hundreds of millions more global consumers will enter the middle class and gain purchasing power extending beyond their basic needs. Who and where are they? Visa's chief economist discusses this trend and what it could mean for global merchants.
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A year after demonetization, digital payments grow in India
November 14, 2017
The Indian economy has transformed considerably toward cashless payments.
Digital payments are expanding in India
July 10, 2017
India continues to make steady progress toward becoming a “less cash society".
After demonetization: India's move to a "less-cash" society
April 12, 2017
India is on the path to becoming a digital payments economy.
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Income is driving Southeast Asian spending
October 31, 2016
Despite declines in the housing market, spending is unlikely to suffer as a result.
The global impact of electronic payments
March 9, 2016
Payment cards help stimulate global economic growth.
Wayne Best
Chief Economist
Juliana Tang
Executive Admin. Assistant
Bruce Cundiff
Vice President, Insights
Michael Brown
Principal U.S. Economist
Adolfo Laurenti
Principal Europe Economist
Richard Lung
Principal Global Economist
Glenn Maguire
Principal Asia Pacific Economist
Jennifer Doettling
Director, Content and Editorial
Jeffrey Roach
Senior U.S. Economist
Mohamed Bardastani
Senior CEMEA Economist
Dulguun Batbold
Global Economist
Michael Nevski
Director, Consumer Insights
Angelina Pascual
Europe Economist
Travis Clark
U.S. Economist
Mariamawit Tadesse
Assoc. Global Economist
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Visa Business and Economic Insights, part of Visa Consulting and Analytics, offers actionable intelligence about the evolving global economy. By applying advanced research and analysis in many areas affecting your bottom line, we can help you:
- Track consumer spending trends
- Understand economic conditions impacting consumer spending
- Pinpoint consumers that have a strong buying presence
- Monitor regional and demographic economic trends
- Identify global markets with growth potential
- Take advantage of global tourism and travel trends
Our timely insights into consumer spending and payments help you make decisions that will position your business for success.