Business and Economic Insights

Visa’s team of economists provide business and economic insights with up-to-date analysis on the latest trends in consumer spending and payments. Sign up today to receive their regular updates automatically via email.

How is household spending changing?

The Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI) is a new economic indicator that helps gauge the health of consumer spending and overall participation by consumers in the economic recovery. The index is based on current, depersonalized transaction data from a sample of Visa-branded credit and debit credentials, representing actual spending behavior by millions of consumers. Additional sub-indexes are available on a subscription basis to eligible Visa clients for greater business intelligence.

Get the latest SMI report

U.S. Perspectives

Explore trends in U.S. economic growth and consumer retail spending.

U.S. Economic Outlook: Walking a tight rope.

July 14, 2021

With inflation hitting above its two percent target, we expect the Fed to start tapering its monthly asset purchases as it walks a tight rope between supporting the economy and letting it overheat.

Read the July U.S. Economic Outlook

Deurbanization or the great reshuffle?

July 14, 2021

Higher-cost metro areas could suffer for a while as lower-cost areas present new opportunities for merchants and issuers.

Read the new special report

When will the Fed remove its punchbowl of accommodation that has helped to fuel the strong recovery?

June 25, 2021

Economic growth is robust, the labor market is firming and inflation pressures are building.

Read the June Economic Outlook

America’s small businesses are starting to borrow again

June 15, 2021

Visa’s proprietary indexes and a nationwide survey provide new indication of the state of America’s small businesses.

Read the spring Small Business Outlook

America in recovery: Why some regions are faring better than others

June 15, 2021

States with lower restrictions and higher employment in essential industries have had the lowest GDP and employment declines caused by the pandemic.

Read America in Recovery

Assessing the economic recovery one year later

June 1, 2021

Is the U.S. economy on course for one of the strongest years in recent history?

Read the new special report

U.S. Perspectives Archive

: Consumer spending stalls in April as stimulus effects wane

May 30, 2021

Retail sales excluding autos fell 0.8 percent month-over-month (MoM) in April after consumers exhausted stimulus payments from the prior month.

Supply shortages create pothole on the road to economic recovery

May 25, 2021

Regular readers will note that we have been pointing out the risk of higher inflation for several months now.

Consumers grow more confident, but still have concerns about the future

May 24, 2021

Economic concerns could hinder consumer spending through the remainder of 2021.

Economic recovery: Full steam ahead

April 16, 2021

First quarter ends with solid economic growth and strong momentum going into Q2.

Vaccination effort gives ‘shot in the arm’ to consumer confidence—highest since pandemic

April 12, 2021

Consumers really want to travel, but are concerned about safety and prices.

Inflation: The price of recovery?

March 12, 2021

Q1 real GDP growth was revised downward and new risks to the outlook are emerging.

Younger consumers are more confident in the economic recovery

March 11, 2021

Consumers are living in the moment as the Present Situation Index drives confidence again.

U.S. economy signals strong start to 2021

February 15, 2021

For the first time in a while, we now see more upside risk to GDP growth this year than downside.

U.S. consumer recovery is losing some momentum

January 27, 2021

Holiday sales were strong, but consumers have slowed spending due to expired federal stimulus programs and continued surges in COVID cases.

Consumer confidence likely to remain low until vaccines are widely available

February 5, 2021

Spending and economic recovery depend on affluent consumers.

U.S. consumer recovery is losing some momentum

January 27, 2021

Holiday sales were strong, but consumers have slowed spending due to expired federal stimulus programs and continued surges in COVID cases.

U.S. economy loses momentum

January 20, 2021

We continue to forecast stronger growth in the second half of this year as a vaccine becomes more widely available and consumer confidence begins to more meaningfully recover.

Consumers show optimism about the future, but remain bogged down by the present

January 12, 2021

Many don’t think the stimulus is enough or that the vaccine will be effective.
: Beginning the recovery journey: 5 things to watch for

December 15, 2020

We take a step back and focus on the key themes that will determine economic growth in the year ahead.

America's small businesses are starting to recover

December 7, 2020

Despite the ongoing challenges of the pandemic, small business spending has rebounded significantly.

U.S. consumer activity decelerated in October

December 4, 2020

October retail sales data pointed to a downshift in the pace of consumer spending.

Post-election prognostication

November 20, 2020

We have revised our outlook a bit higher for Q4 but lowered our expectations for growth entering 2021.

October consumer confidence decreased slightly

November 16, 2020

Holiday spending mood is good, but how and what consumers are buying is shifting this year.

U.S. small business activity improved slightly in September

November 10, 2020

Opens stall, while revenues and employment improve slightly.

U.S. consumer activity accelerated in September

November 10, 2020

Retail sales jump to near pre-pandemic levels in September.

Holiday partying like it’s 1999?

November 4, 2020

Among the key drivers of this year’s robust holiday sales are the recent surge in e-commerce sales, the continued robust demand for food and beverages at home (groceries), and higher prices on holiday-related items.

U.S. economic recovery is losing some momentum

October 13, 2020

In response to the slower pace of improvement in the economic data, we have downwardly revised our estimate for fourth quarter gross domestic product growth.

September consumer confidence increased more than 15 points

October 5, 2020

Consumers reluctant to celebrate and spend for Halloween; foreshadowing the holiday season?

U.S. consumer activity further moderated in August

September 24, 2020

Overall consumer spending remains well below its pre-recession peak, and the labor market continues its slow recovery.

Economic growth: Bouncing back…and a return to boring?

September 21, 2020

Solid economic data in August point toward a historic bounce in third quarter gross domestic product growth as the reopening process continues.

Consumer confidence falls to a six-year low

September 15, 2020

Fall in confidence likely a combination of increased COVID cases in parts of the U.S. and the end of some government stimulus programs. Millennials are becoming less comfortable going out to eat.

Small Business Recovery Monitor

September 8, 2020

Visa's analysis of current economic data indicates that U.S. small business activity stalled in July.

U.S. small businesses still struggle from pandemic

September 2, 2020

Visa's proprietary Small Business Health Indexes and a nationwide survey of small business owners show how America's small businesses are coping during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Retail sales improvement moderates in July

August 28, 2020

Visa's analysis of current economic data indicates that U.S. consumer activity continued to recover in July but at a more moderate pace.

A speedbump on the economic road to recovery

August 17, 2020

The U.S. economy decelerated in July with a surge in COVID-19 cases across wide swaths of the country.

Is the economic recovery at risk?

July 9, 2020

Economic data for the month of June continued to signal a rebound in economic activity even as the number of new virus cases continued to rise to new highs.

Consumer confidence is slowly rebounding

July 9, 2020

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rebounded strongly in June, after virtually no change in May. The headline index was up 12.2 points to 98.1 (1985=100), from 85.9 in May.

Small businesses started slowly recovering in June

July 6, 2020

SBA-led federal aid programs and the lifting of stay-at-home restrictions are beginning to alleviate much of the burden small businesses have carried since March.

Consumer deferrals may influence the debt payment hierarchy

June 25, 2020

As COVID-19 takes the U.S. economy into uncharted territory, many credit card issuers and other lenders are wondering how consumers’ debt behavior might change.

Small businesses hit hard in Q1 by the pandemic

June 24, 2020

Visa's Spring Small Business Outlook indicates that small business spending declined sharply in Q1 as the health crisis unfolded and sales plummeted.

Early signs of softer U.S. consumer spending

April 2, 2020

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.

U.S. consumer spending downshifted slightly in January

February 24, 2020

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.

U.S. economic momentum is solid, but uncertainty is building

February 19, 2020

Economic data for January pointed towards a solid start to 2020. Uncertainty is building, however, with the ongoing fallout of the coronavirus.

U.S. consumer spending ended 2019 with good momentum

January 27, 2020

Solid holiday spending combined with continued job gains and modest income growth marked the end of 2019.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

January 21, 2020

For most of the U.S. economy, times are good. However, the manufacturing sector continues to struggle.
: Consumers are continuing to propel the U.S. economy forward

December 24, 2019

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Assoc. Economist Travis Clark.

Steady growth, but U.S. small businesses show signs of caution

December 18, 2019

More than half expect their business to have positive cash flow in 2020, but many small businesses also worry about the potential negative impact that global and political instability could have on their business, according to Visa's latest survey.

U.S. economic growth has become bifurcated

December 17, 2019

Risks to the U.S. economic outlook include a possible federal government shutdown and yet-to-be-resolved trade issues.

U.S. consumers continue to power economic growth

November 22, 2019

The resilience of the U.S. consumer helped to support GDP growth even as business investment contracted for the second consecutive quarter.

Making the yield curve steep again

November 13, 2019

There are signs that economic growth should stabilize in the fourth quarter after decelerating earlier this year.

U.S. consumer economic conditions remain strong, but declining confidence may be cause for concern

October 31, 2019

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.

Holiday sales expected to rise 4.1 percent year-over-year

November 12, 2019

Thanksgiving weekend is lining up to be one of the strongest in years, with 60 percent of holiday shoppers indicating they plan to shop on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday or Cyber Monday. This is a big jump from 51 percent back in 2013.

U.S. economic growth is softening as the global economy slows

October 15, 2019

Slowdown in manufacturing is beginning to permeate the services sector. Plus Visa’s U.S. economic forecast through 2021.

Fundamentals behind U.S. consumer spending remain solid so far in the third quarter

September 25, 2019

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.

U.S. small businesses continue to expand and grow despite trade uncertainty

September 16, 2019

As tariffs continue, one in five businesses worry their business will suffer in the years ahead, according to Visa's latest survey.

A tale of two economies: manufacturing vs. services

September 11, 2019

U.S. economic growth is expected to downshift but remain positive heading into 2020, while weakness in manufacturing could hold back business fixed investment.

Fundamentals behind U.S consumer spending remain strong

August 22, 2019

Retail sales jump to 3.7 percent year-over-year in July, signaling a solid start to the third quarter.

A rate cut, now what?

August 8, 2019

The outlook for the second half of 2019 has changed very little in Visa’s updated U.S. economic forecast.

U.S. consumer sector economic data remains strong

July 19, 2019

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown and U.S. Economist Eric Warner.

U.S. Economy: Lower rates on the horizon

July 10, 2019

The FOMC will likely cut rates twice this year, trying to nudge inflation closer to its 2 percent target and offset the slowdown in U.S. manufacturing.

Retail sales are stronger than they look

June 25, 2019

Visa’s analysis of the most recent consumer sector economic data indicates consumer spending should accelerate in the second quarter.

U.S. Economy: Continued trade uncertainty weighs on economic growth

June 17, 2019

Economic data continues to indicate a downshift in the pace of economic growth in the second quarter.

U.S. small business economic outlook remains steady

May 17, 2019

“Business as usual” climate continues with America’s small businesses, according to latest Visa survey.

Consumer spending off to a disappointing start in Q2

May 21, 2019

Monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from Chief Economist Wayne Best and U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown.

U.S. Economic Outlook: Finding the signal through the noise

May 8, 2019

U.S. headline economic growth appeared surprisingly strong in the first quarter, but was inflated by higher inventories and a contraction in import activity.

U.S. Economic Outlook: A weak start, but growth to rebound in 2019

April 18, 2019

Looking ahead to Q2, Visa’s April U.S. economic forecast continues to show that growth will likely pick up.

Consumer spending shows signs of strengthening

April 18, 2019

Visa’s monthly report on the consumer economic landscape from Chief Economist Wayne Best and U.S. Principal Economist Michael Brown.

How much longer can the current U.S. economic expansion continue?

April 3, 2019

The ongoing U.S. economic expansion is approaching record-breaking status, but for how long? Visa’s Principal U.S. Economist, Michael Brown, discusses the economic indicators he monitors for signs of a recession.

Small business economic indicators still relatively strong

February 20, 2019

Women are more likely than men to need funding to grow their small businesses, according to Visa survey.
: Gen X leads the holiday spending forecast

November 20, 2018

Thanksgiving weekend is lining up to be one of the strongest in years for U.S. retailers.

Consumer spending shifting to improve quality of life

June 13, 2018

A video insight from Visa's Chief Economist, Wayne Best.

Consumer wealth has major implications for U.S. economy

March 20, 2018

Stock and home values have increased household wealth and supercharged consumer spending.
: Holiday spending expected to grow 3.5-4 percent YoY

November 21, 2017

U.S. e-commerce spending is likely to increase 15-17 percent this holiday season.

Building, hardware and garden store sales are booming

October 11, 2017

Hardware and garden store sales increased by 12.8 percent as consumers remodel their homes.

Clothing store sales growth declines

September 5, 2017

Clothing store sales growth declines overall, but jewelry sales are going strong.
: Affluent consumer spending is under pressure

October 13, 2016

Affluent U.S. consumers have pulled back on spending in recent years, lagging as much as five percentage points behind non-affluent spending growth.

Chief Economist Newsletter

Visa’s Chief Economist, Wayne Best, provides insights on the latest economic developments.

Stock image showing eye of hurricane storm.

Global economic outlook: Calm before the storm?

December 18, 2019

Slowing growth, but a recession is not necessarily inevitable.

Read the latest Chief Economist Newsletter

Bar graph showing compound annual growth of real GDP from 1.8% in March 2017 to 3.2% in March 2019.

Despite risks, stability is returning to global economic growth

May 10, 2019

Brexit, declining global home prices and trade tensions are the biggest issues that threaten the global outlook.

Read about the global economic growth

Unloading a shipping container at a ship yard.

Strong growth for the U.S. economy, but will it last?

November 30, 2018

Potential trade war adds uncertainty to the outlook.

Read about U.S. economy growth

Chief Economist Newsletter Archive

: Troubled waters ahead for the U.S. economy?

June 20, 2018

By most measures, the U.S. economy is on solid footing, but fiscal stimulus—in the form of tax cuts—could overheat the economy.

Global economy growth expected to continue in 2018

January 22, 2018

In 2017, the global economy saw the most broad-based growth since the global financial crisis. What's ahead in 2018?
: Slow economic growth expected for coming years

October 27, 2017

The U.S. economy is expanding, but a variety of factors could hinder growth.

Strong U.S. economy spurs spending in key merchant categories

May 25, 2017

The U.S. economy has been expanding for nearly eight years and appears on track to surpass the 10-year record set in the 1990s.

Global economy adjusts to 'slow-fast world'

January 9, 2017

Nearly half of the world's countries will see a steady decline in working-age populations.
: U.S. consumer spending reveals economic growth

October 21, 2016

Weak GDP figures mask the strength of the consumer.

Economic growth bolsters housing

June 30, 2016

Until recently, housing was the missing link in the economic recovery.

U.S. economy outlook steady despite weaker global trends

April 1, 2016

The global economy is in the longest stretch of sub-par growth of the last three decades.

Travel Insights

Follow economic trends in travel and tourism.

Total arrivals growth year over year. See image description for more information.

Relaxing entry visa requirements helps many countries boost tourism growth

February 4, 2020

Following a decade of visa liberalization in Africa, tourist arrivals grew 8 percent year-over-year (YoY) in 2019.

Read about tourism growth in Africa

Image of a colorful town on the lake side with small boats.

Are the world’s top travel destinations at risk of overtourism?

September 5, 2019

While the number of people traveling abroad is increasing rapidly, where these globe trekkers are going is not.

Read about world's top destinations at risk of overtourism

The world’s most visited cities in 2018

April 12, 2019

Ranking the world’s top destinations for international arrivals in each region.

Read about most visited cities in the world

Travel Insights Archive

: The world’s most visited cities in 2018

April 12, 2019

Ranking the world’s top destinations for international arrivals in each region.

Visa estimates impact of Olympic Winter Games

January 4, 2019

South Korea could see a tourism lift of 5-10 percent from the winter games in PyeongChang.
: Closer destinations preferred for beach travel

December 20, 2018

2017 hurricanes still displacing some N. American Caribbean travel.

Cross-border tourism in Asia is taking off

June 6, 2018

Cross-border tourism from Asia Pacific is booming—outpacing income growth in the region.

Visa explores growth opportunities for global ski tourism

February 6, 2018

The importance of foreign ski travel to the tourism industry overall varies widely by country.

Ski destinations have room for further market development

February 6, 2018

Seasonal variations in international visits provide insights into the potential for attracting foreign tourists to ski destinations.

The slippery slope of population aging in ski tourism

February 6, 2018

Ski destinations are more exposed to aging trends in part due to the preponderance of European travelers in the cross-border ski market.

Top 25 winter ski destinations for international travelers

February 6, 2018

Austria’s Pinzgau-Pongau region of the Alps is ranked #1 in Visa’s list of the top 25 global winter ski destinations,* based on a three-year average of cross-border arrivals according to the Visa International Travel (VISIT) platform.
: Impact of Asia Pacific travelers visiting U.S. national parks

July 24, 2017

Asian travelers are the fastest-growing segment of park visitors.

Importance of U.S. national parks to tourism industry

July 24, 2017

At least one in eight foreign tourists visit the U.S. national parks in the summer—a nearly $10 billion economic boost.

Western U.S. national parks popular with foreign tourists

July 24, 2017

Find out the top 10 U.S. national parks ranked by foreign tourist visits.

Top-trending summer travel destinations in Japan

June 19, 2017

Find out which cities topped the list of cities visited by foreign tourists visiting Japan last year.

Currency movements influence Asia Pacific travel

May 31, 2017

The currency devaluation after Brexit had a subdued impact on AP travel to the U.K.

Top-trending summer travel destinations for North Americans

May 12, 2017

Find out which global travel destinations are popular with summer travelers.

Travel to U.K. saves Americans nearly $150/trip post-Brexit

April 18, 2017

The weaker British pound made the U.K. a more affordable travel destination following Brexit.

Travel wanderlust: Age is not a constraint, but income might be

February 22, 2017

New research from Visa Business + Economic Insights indicates seniors will have a growing impact on travel and tourism.
: Brexit: Long-term impact on travel is unknown

August 18, 2016

Brexit could impact international travel and cause a reduction in British travel to the rest of the world: U.K. travelers currently account for nearly 8 percent of all international departures.

The future of global travel

June 9, 2016

Over the next 10 years, the growth in travel spending is expected to outpace the global economy.

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Global Perspectives

Actionable intelligence about the evolving global economy.

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Vaccinations unlock a potential spending boom

June 30, 2021

Pandemic-induced geographic gaps are closing.

Read the June Global Economic Insights

Area chart showing China's share of global GDP growth. See image description for more information.

China’s contribution to the global recovery could be its lowest in modern economic history

May 24, 2021

Current production is laying the foundations for China’s next phase of growth.

Read the April Global Economic Insights

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Will the abrupt, pandemic-induced e-commerce shift reshape retail’s future?

April 9, 2021

Retail merchants of all sizes across all regions of the world adapted to the pandemic by moving more of their sales online.

Read the March Global Economic Insights report

Global Perspectives Archive

: The last billion connections: Africa’s e-commerce potential

March 10, 2021

Africa was already on a trajectory of rapid digital transformation, but the pandemic has likely accelerated the trend.

After Brexit: New realities for European travel

February 8, 2021

Brexit brings new rules and restrictions on cross-border travel.

Three potential surprises in 2021

January 12, 2021

Looking back, most economists were overly pessimistic. Close reading of high-frequency transaction data has revealed greater resilience in the global economy.
: 2020 holiday sales start strong globally

December 1, 2020

After earlier pandemic-related losses, businesses face greater financial pressure for a strong year-end.

Tourism’s road to recovery runs through cities

November 5, 2020

Bringing large cities back is critical to the recovery of global travel and tourism.

Customer loyalty enables businesses to recover faster

September 29, 2020

The benefits of having a more loyal customer base have become readily apparent, especially in the food service industry and quick services restaurants.

August Global Economic Insights

September 4, 2020

Similar to retirement behavior, COVID-19 reduces the share of household spending on apparel and restaurants.

Why the world needs to watch Asia Pacific

July 14, 2020

Visa’s Principal Asia Pacific Economist reflects on the shape of the region’s economic recovery from the pandemic – and what lessons it holds for the rest of the world.
: European middle class households expected to increase spending 38 percent

September 27, 2019

In western Europe, 55 percent of all new consumer spending is expected to come from “new affluent” households by 2030. Visa's European principal economist Adolfo Laurenti discusses this trend.

What happens when cities close their "globalization gap" over the next decade?

April 3, 2019

Hundreds of millions more global consumers will enter the middle class and gain purchasing power extending beyond their basic needs. Who and where are they? Visa's chief economist discusses this trend and what it could mean for global merchants.
: A year after demonetization, digital payments grow in India

November 14, 2017

The Indian economy has transformed considerably toward cashless payments.

Digital payments are expanding in India

July 10, 2017

India continues to make steady progress toward becoming a “less cash society".

After demonetization: India's move to a "less-cash" society

April 12, 2017

India is on the path to becoming a digital payments economy.
: Income is driving Southeast Asian spending

October 31, 2016

Despite declines in the housing market, spending is unlikely to suffer as a result.

The global impact of electronic payments

March 9, 2016

Payment cards help stimulate global economic growth.

Meet the team

Wayne Best

Chief Economist

Juliana Tang

Executive Admin. Assistant

Bruce Cundiff

Vice President, Insights

Michael Brown

Principal U.S. Economist

Adolfo Laurenti

Principal Europe Economist

Richard Lung

Principal Global Economist

Glenn Maguire

Principal Asia Pacific Economist

Jennifer Doettling

Director, Content and Editorial

Jeffrey Roach

Senior U.S. Economist

Mohamed Bardastani

Senior CEMEA Economist

Dulguun Batbold

Global Economist

Michael Nevski

Director, Consumer Insights

Angelina Pascual

Europe Economist

Travis Clark

U.S. Economist

Mariamawit Tadesse

Assoc. Global Economist

About Visa Business and Economic Insights

Computer monitor on top of a desk that has The Impact of Electronic payments page open on the browser.

Visa Business and Economic Insights, part of Visa Consulting and Analytics, offers actionable intelligence about the evolving global economy. By applying advanced research and analysis in many areas affecting your bottom line, we can help you:

Track consumer spending trends
Understand economic conditions impacting consumer spending
Pinpoint consumers that have a strong buying presence
Monitor regional and demographic economic trends
Identify global markets with growth potential
Take advantage of global tourism and travel trends

Our timely insights into consumer spending and payments help you make decisions that will position your business for success.

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