The Fed’s fuel for the strong recovery | Visa


When will the Fed remove its punchbowl of accommodation that has helped to fuel the strong recovery?

Economic growth is robust, the labor market is firming and inflation pressures are building.

A bar chart showing the compound annual growth rate in seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product. See gross domestic product image description.

A bar chart showing the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in seasonally adjusted (SA) real gross domestic product ranging from 2.9% in March 2019 to a low of -31.4% in June 2020, a high of 33.4% in September 2020, and the latest reading of 6.4% in March 2020, with CAGR forecast to end 2021 at 4.2% and 2022 at 2.6%. Year-over-year growth in real GDP ranged from 2.3% in March 2019 to a low of -9% in June 2020 and recovering into positive territory again with the latest reading of 0.4% in March 2021, with year over year (YoY) growth expected to end 2021 at 5.9% and 2022 at 2.6%.

A bar chart showing the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator. See employment PCE image description.

A bar chart showing the PCE deflator ranging from 1.9% in January 2020 to a low of 0.5% in April 2020 and steadily increasing since then to the latest reading of 3.6% in April 2021. A line chart also shows the ratio of employment-to-population ranging from 61.1% in January 2020 to a low of 51.3 in April 2020 and steadily gaining since then to the latest reading of 58% in May 2021.