Walking an economic tight rope | Visa


U.S. Economic Outlook: Walking a tight rope.

With inflation hitting above its two percent target, we expect the Fed to start tapering its monthly asset purchases as it walks a tight rope between supporting the economy and letting it overheat.

A bar chart showing the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and a line chart shows year-over-year growth in real GDP. See GDP image description.

A bar chart showing the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product ranging from 2.9% in March 2019 to a low point of -31.4% in June 2020, a high of 33.4% in September 2020 and latest reading of 5.95% in June 2021, with CAGR forecast to end 2021 at 4.89% and 2022 at 2.66%. A line chart shows year-over-year growth in real GDP ranging from 2.27% in March-19 to a low of -9% in June 2020 and recovering to positive values at .4% in March 2021 and the latest reading of 11.9% in June 2021, with YoY growth expected to end 2021 at 5.53% and 2022 at 2.69%.

A line chart shows seasonally adjusted year-over-year percent change in average hourly earnings. See earnings and quits image description.

A line chart shows seasonally adjusted year-over-year percent change in average hourly earnings ranging from 3.26% in January 2019 to a high of 8.17% in April 2020, a low of 0.33% in April 2021 and recovering to the latest reading of 3.58% in June 2021. Another line shows the rate of quits ranging from 2.3% in January 2019 to a low of 1.6% in April 2020, and increasing since then to the latest reading of 2.7% in April 2021.